Predictive Analytics Tools that Rule #In Advertising or @eDiscovery_

2011/02/10

Advertisers, executives and now eDiscovery lawyers look to the promise of predictive analytics to fulfill an innate desire to predict and influence the future though would learn much more from Chanel No5, the mother of predictive analytics tools.  Let’s look at Predictive Analytics first and Chanel later.

Predictive Analytics

Predictive analytics is an outcome delivered by the application of tools and techniques that link numbers and stories and provide insight today to what might happen tomorrow, much like the gypsy in a tent.

The attraction of predictive analytics story to executives is quite high as they struggle to align future products to constantly changing customer needs or for lawyers that lead E-Discovery teams as they look for a way to predict which numbers and stories embedded in data will help them prevail in their stewardship of  typically high cost, low value eDiscovery projects.

Link Numbers to Stories to Predict Future Events

As a fully recovered accountant I learned how stories magnified  the value of analytics as I delivered services with Microsoft, Cognos, Business Objects or other technologies to global corporations.

These are the tools that I used;

1. ‘Story or Perspective Lens’.

Story | Process | Software or Idea | Brand | Numbers or KPIs

Stories align People, Content & Purpose

Tell a story twice and it becomes a Process.
Tell a story three times and software is made to speed up Processes.
Tell a story four times and you create a Brand value.
Tell a story five times and someone creates a KPI to measure.

Anyone can point a Perspective Lens at a corporate value chain to obtain a clear understanding of what is happening there today and what will happen in the next 6 to 12 months.

Two simple tools to magnify the value of a story lens:

1. Personae–build key personae with a focus on behaviours
2. Scenarios–gather stories at the core of financial forecasts across a corporate value chain

Predictive Analytics, Personae & Scenarios

Identify the Personae across a corporation’s global value chain and use predictive analytics to determine how their behaviours may change over the next 6 to 12 months.

Target and understand the relationships of key stories embedded in the corporation’s financial forecast.

Modify some original stories according to anticipated changes in Persona behaviours or add new stories to reflect unforeseen events such as Barrack Obama being elected as the next US President.

Label the first story cluster Scenario1 and the new cluster of stories Scenario2.

Scenarios & Future-Proofing

Future-proofing is a concept that uses scenarios to avoid disaster or exploit opportunities in the future.

Consider how you would manage and align the business if the world unfolds according to the stories in Scenario1 or what might be done if the world unfolds according the Scenario2.

Predictive analytics, Perspective lenses, Personae and Scenario analysis help us deal with the future now.

Chanel No5, Stories and Numbers

All storytellers intuitively understand that numbers and stories are complementary and as a storyteller I must point out that at one time stories and numbers were one and indeed even today a number evokes many stories–the numbers 7 or 4 in the Chinese culture or even the number 5 in our own.

Chanel No5 and the African link to Predictive Analytics

In the Yoruba tradition of Nigeria the deity of love, sexuality and finance is OSHUN and her number is 5.

Coco Chanel must have known about the mythical connection or was extremely lucky to have named her iconic scent No5 though either way the connection of stories and numbers is important.

Numbers, Stories & Behaviours

Studying Jung’s protégé  Marie-Louise von Franz offers researchers more resources in the exploration of the links between numbers and stories though I suggest starting with; 

On Divination and Synchronicity: The Psychology of Meaningful Chance. Originally Presented As Lectures at the C.G. Jung Institute, Zurich (Studies in Jungian Psychology) (Paperback) by Marie-Louise von Franz

Storytellers

Stories are the core of what we are and what we do, and for those with an unclear understanding of the expertise offered by a storyteller means let me offer this view—Storytellers perceives by measuring differently and has the ability to magnify any Predictive Analytics project, though it is important to note that there are five levels of experience that storytellers traverse;

  • Hear a story
  • Repeat a story
  • Tune  a story
  • Create a story
  • Live a story

Join us to explore the application of Predictive Analytics  to Advertising or E-Discovery.

Cheers,
Nick
nick@scenario2.com @SpeedSynch @eDiscovery_ @ResonantView


Internet Marketing Persona Master Classes

2010/07/28

Our internet marketing persona master classes are scheduled for September 28, 2010 and delivered by webinar.

Internet Marketing Persona Master Class Schedule

  • 10:00     Introductions and Group Orientation
  • 10:15     Topic Selection – Master Class Objectives  — Web and Social Media, Product and Customer Persona
  • 11:00     SEO Master Talk – Identification of keyword phrases and SEO niche market opportunities
  • 11:30     Competitve Analysis – SEO Aligment Index and competitve analysis best practices
  • 12:00     Master Class questions, answers and distribution of tools and additional resources

MASTER CLASS FACILITATORS

  • Persona — Nick Trendov
  • SEO — Terry Lewis

FEE  $ 50 payable by PayPal or cash.

MASTER CLASS CONTENT– sent to registered attendees

INFORMATION CONTACT — Nick Trendov @SpeedSynch or www.speedsynch.com


Yahoo Personati

2009/08/16

Yahoo has used personae for close to ten years now to help them serve their customers better and maximize revenues to achieve success in the brutally competitive search market.

However, Yahoo uses personae strictly to group user interaction behaviours of their customers as indicated here:

Yahoo recently sent a Yodel Ancedotal message to customers focused on (Neuro)Persona behaviour surveys:

we look at the story of Jewellery repair and FedEx.

What’s your social mojo?Posted: 13 Aug 2009 10:08 PM PDT As Twitter becomes more mainstream, everyone and their mother (and grandmother… and mayor… and daytime TV host) is trying their hand at the tweet. But what they might not realize is that how you use Twitter can say a lot about you. In honor of our new Yahoo! Homepage, which was designed to be customized to reflect your true personality, we’ve launched a new tool that helps you analyze your social mojo. Just enter your Twitter username and our highly scientific pipe thingy goes to work to determine exactly what kind of Twitter persona you possess. You might be a:

  • § Headliner – You’re the star of the Twitterverse, have tons of followers, and have retweets the likes of Ashton Kutcher and Perez Hilton
  • § Crowd Pleaser – You use lots of hashtags and are in on all the hot conversations
  • § Cheerleader – Retweeting is how you roll
  • § B.F.F. – Your volume of @replies makes you everybody’s best bud
  • § Party Animal – With so many followers, you’re the life of the party
  • § Private Eye – Like any good investigator, you’re following a boatload of people
  • § Concierge – You live for links and sending people to the best stuff
  • § Word Whiz – You’re a natural wordsmith and make the most of your 140 characters
  • § Lone Wolf – You’re more of a low-profile type (some might even accuse you of lurking)
  • § Name Dropper – You use lots of @names when you tweet
  • § Matchmaker – You pass along lots of URLs to make sure everyone’s connected
  • § Wall Flower – You don’t tweet much but you’re still in on the party
  • § Novelist – You have a lot to say and tweet with a lot of characters to prove it
  • § Shadow – You follow lots of people like a good shadow would
  • § Scenester – If there’s a hashtag conversation happening, you’re there
  • § Tweethead – Your high number of retweets shows you like to spread the good stuff

 
And once you get your assessment, we suggest a number of related websites that you can add to your very own Yahoo! Homepage to help feed your mojo.

Give it a try — http://yahoo.knowyourmojo.com… and then tweet about it. (And be sure to follow us on Twitter — we’re a Concierge.)

Nicki Dugan
Blog Editor

Now why is this important to Yahoo?  Simple, if Yahoo can accomodate behaviours the actual people exhibiting the behaviours are irrelevent in that it doesn’t matter if they are young, old, rich, poor, strong or weak.

Elementally (Neuro)Personae render marketing segmentation analysis redundant.  I would have said useless, but in my view it has been that way for decision making for a considerable period of time.

Cheers,

Nick www.adscenario.com www.neuropersona.com www.speedsynch.com


Microsoft to Rename Groove as SharePoint Workspace

2009/06/08

Microsoft to Rename Groove as SharePoint Workspace

Posted using ShareThis


Media Personati

2009/05/18

Media is a container of stories and may be understood by using a Neuropersona concept where masks are worn by Personati or people to take a particular perspective represented by stories and processes attached to each mask.

How do we know which Media helps us get our messages to the right people?

Think about Media just like you would a story.  Some stories resonate with some people, others do not, and to help us understand how to align our stories we must consider the Neuropersona masks that are helpful to people.  When we take this perspective we quickly see that not all Media yields the same results and if our objectives change we are alerted to the different Media options and changes that suit our new requirements.  Life constantly changes and our use of Media should align with the changes important to our values.

Alignment is a critical component to Media and the Personati behind the Neuropersona masks.

Cheers,

Nick www.neuropersona.com


Predictive Analytics Guru

2009/04/04
A Neuropersona Story Lens finds the Answer before you ask a Question

A Neuropersona Story Lens finds the Answer before you ask a Question

A simple Story Lens and a Neuropersona perspective helps you understand where you are and prepare for future opportunities quickly and simply.
Cheers,
Nick

Predictive Analytics Insight

2008/12/23
Persona Tools and NeuroPersona Perpective

Persona Tools and NeuroPersona Perpective

A modest amount of training of Persona concepts or slightly more complex NeuroPersona tools can help people see future opportunities and mitigate risks.  This is done with a Story Lens which can be adjusted by the Person behind the Persona Mask as needed.

How is a Story Lens  used? 

From a personal point of view it helps you navigate.  This might mean content, products, places, stories…

From a commercial seller’s point of view a Persona supports ALIGNMENT.

Cheers,

Nick www.scenario2.com


Persona Driven Innovation

2008/12/11

Let’s get beyond Cooper Personas, or rather consider them as training wheels for a larger, richer and older, much older concept of Persona known by most cultures.

Think of MASKS or BODY PAINT and you have the Persona construct. These things may be worn and changed by the person underneath. The person is not the mask but the mask or paint represents possible behavours.

Innovation, so valued by artists and desperately sought by commercial enterprises, is driven by creativity and creativity is driven by ideas.

The Story Lens is a simple way to connect ideas and their manifestation.

Innovations depends on stories and stories depend on IDEAS and IDEAS depend on the ability to perceive differences, possibilities and opportunities…MEASURES or NUMBERS.

Cheers,

Nick www.scenario2.com


Persona Marketing and Magnetism

2008/11/24

Magnetism can help us understand the potential of Persona Marketing using the simple rules that opposite charges attract and identical charges repel. 

A seller may place a positive charge on a product to attract buyers after paying marketers to research and segment markets and build the brand.  Marketing strategy and efforts would focus on the findings, observations and analysis that buyers are attracted to products with a positive charge.

It is at this point that more often than not that a strange thing happens.  Some buyers (negative charge) purchase the offered product (positive charge) but many others with the same interests don’t buy.  Other buyers (positive charge) who would never be expected to buy actually buy the product (positive charge).

Welcome to reality where a Persona changes behaviour instantly, for their own reasons, in their own time.  

An AC motor operates by alternating charges from positive to negative constantly but unlike the AC motor we never know why or when a person may wear or discard a Persona mask and its associated behaviours.

How do we adjust to serve our customers, stay relevant and earn profit?

We must simply serve Persona behaviours and let people behind the mask tell us what to do.  This is done by providing sensible Persona based navigation options or choices.  In the previous story a person may wear one Persona (positive charge) or another (negative charge).  We would never be able to tell which Persona mask is being worn by an individual unless they declare.  Providing a person the ability to declare their interest is simpler than most people think and a web site is one way to accomplish this by providing different paths to people with different interests or Persona behaviours.   A Persona declares their interest and the value useful to them by navigating the web site.

For more details around web site navigation see www.scenario2.com and to to Web Strategy Instruction.

Cheers,

Nick www.scenario2.com


Prediction and Persona Marketing

2008/11/23

A Persona mask represents behaviours and may be worn or removed by someone as needed.  We use the idea of a Persona to illuminate stories, processes and probabilities to serve people behind the Persona.  I have trained marketers, accountants and executives in the art of Persona Marketing and to employ Persona Behaviour analysis techniques quickly and effectively.  Two of the most powerful tools that help us understand Persona Behaviour are the Story Lens and Storyboard Maps. 

Stories are at the core of a Persona mask and the Story Lens  is the set represented by stories, processes, software, brands and KPIs or measures–stories on the left and numbers on the right, 

Storyboards allow us to map, understand and communicate stories across the Story Lens quickly and simply.  Numbers and coordinates are at the core of any map which is much more than a series of lines or a maze to be traversed. 

The art of prediction, highly valued by marketers, accountants and bookmakers, starts with understanding what has happened to  determine which activities may repeat (processes), whether the same tools (cars, software…) might be used again and the core drivers of previous activities.  A critical component in successfully preparing for the future is the use of measures such as time, dollars, distance and others to add context to past behaviours and to probabilistically determine when and under which circumstances they might reoccur.  Scenarios lift the art of preparing for future success to new heights and should be studied carefully once Personae and their relationship to stories and numbers become familiar.

A Persona mask combined with a Story Lens–stories, processes, software, brands and KPI’s or numbers, link vastly different perspectives required by marketers, accountants and executives.  This is done by associating stories and numbers common to the different perspectives to infer probabalistic behaviours.

What is probabilistic behaviour?

Since a Persona is a mask worn by a person, understanding future Persona Behaviour allows us align our future products and services to the people behind the mask.  Since we can never know exactly how behaviours will occur in the future we use Scenarios to determine a range of behaviours and to get a sense of the probability that some behaviours might occur in the future.  If this seems a little strange consider the profession of Finance and how accountants forecast.  A financial forecast is made to plan where a business is going and determine measures of success. 

What is behind all those numbers carefully constructed by accountants in plans of one, two or more years? Stories, pure and simple.  Accountants convert stories to numbers and place them in a structure called a chart of accounts.   Then accountants manipulate numbers for the rest of the year in a way that separates them from the stories that were at their core.  Indeed accountants ‘map’ out the future of the business with numbers rather than stories.

Our practice is to blend stories, numbers, maps and storyboards to avoid the common trap that marketers and accounts fall into as they manipulate numbers and stories independently of each other.  This ‘split’ causes stories and numbers that started at the same place to get out of sync with each other.

Stories and numbers continue to be aligned to Personae or the business gets out of harmony with customers and suppliers.  The lack of harmony is a dis-ease which typically results in something breaking.

More about the link between numbers and stories may be found at http://personati.wordpress.com

Cheers,

Nick www.scenario2.com


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