Posts Tagged ‘Predictive Analytics’

Predictive Analytics Tools that Rule #In Advertising or @eDiscovery_

2011/02/10

Advertisers, executives and now eDiscovery lawyers look to the promise of predictive analytics to fulfill an innate desire to predict and influence the future though would learn much more from Chanel No5, the mother of predictive analytics tools.  Let’s look at Predictive Analytics first and Chanel later.

Predictive Analytics

Predictive analytics is an outcome delivered by the application of tools and techniques that link numbers and stories and provide insight today to what might happen tomorrow, much like the gypsy in a tent.

The attraction of predictive analytics story to executives is quite high as they struggle to align future products to constantly changing customer needs or for lawyers that lead E-Discovery teams as they look for a way to predict which numbers and stories embedded in data will help them prevail in their stewardship of  typically high cost, low value eDiscovery projects.

Link Numbers to Stories to Predict Future Events

As a fully recovered accountant I learned how stories magnified  the value of analytics as I delivered services with Microsoft, Cognos, Business Objects or other technologies to global corporations.

These are the tools that I used;

1. ‘Story or Perspective Lens’.

Story | Process | Software or Idea | Brand | Numbers or KPIs

Stories align People, Content & Purpose

Tell a story twice and it becomes a Process.
Tell a story three times and software is made to speed up Processes.
Tell a story four times and you create a Brand value.
Tell a story five times and someone creates a KPI to measure.

Anyone can point a Perspective Lens at a corporate value chain to obtain a clear understanding of what is happening there today and what will happen in the next 6 to 12 months.

Two simple tools to magnify the value of a story lens:

1. Personae–build key personae with a focus on behaviours
2. Scenarios–gather stories at the core of financial forecasts across a corporate value chain

Predictive Analytics, Personae & Scenarios

Identify the Personae across a corporation’s global value chain and use predictive analytics to determine how their behaviours may change over the next 6 to 12 months.

Target and understand the relationships of key stories embedded in the corporation’s financial forecast.

Modify some original stories according to anticipated changes in Persona behaviours or add new stories to reflect unforeseen events such as Barrack Obama being elected as the next US President.

Label the first story cluster Scenario1 and the new cluster of stories Scenario2.

Scenarios & Future-Proofing

Future-proofing is a concept that uses scenarios to avoid disaster or exploit opportunities in the future.

Consider how you would manage and align the business if the world unfolds according to the stories in Scenario1 or what might be done if the world unfolds according the Scenario2.

Predictive analytics, Perspective lenses, Personae and Scenario analysis help us deal with the future now.

Chanel No5, Stories and Numbers

All storytellers intuitively understand that numbers and stories are complementary and as a storyteller I must point out that at one time stories and numbers were one and indeed even today a number evokes many stories–the numbers 7 or 4 in the Chinese culture or even the number 5 in our own.

Chanel No5 and the African link to Predictive Analytics

In the Yoruba tradition of Nigeria the deity of love, sexuality and finance is OSHUN and her number is 5.

Coco Chanel must have known about the mythical connection or was extremely lucky to have named her iconic scent No5 though either way the connection of stories and numbers is important.

Numbers, Stories & Behaviours

Studying Jung’s protégé  Marie-Louise von Franz offers researchers more resources in the exploration of the links between numbers and stories though I suggest starting with; 

On Divination and Synchronicity: The Psychology of Meaningful Chance. Originally Presented As Lectures at the C.G. Jung Institute, Zurich (Studies in Jungian Psychology) (Paperback) by Marie-Louise von Franz

Storytellers

Stories are the core of what we are and what we do, and for those with an unclear understanding of the expertise offered by a storyteller means let me offer this view—Storytellers perceives by measuring differently and has the ability to magnify any Predictive Analytics project, though it is important to note that there are five levels of experience that storytellers traverse;

  • Hear a story
  • Repeat a story
  • Tune  a story
  • Create a story
  • Live a story

Join us to explore the application of Predictive Analytics  to Advertising or E-Discovery.

Cheers,
Nick
nick@scenario2.com @SpeedSynch @eDiscovery_ @ResonantView

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Yahoo Personati

2009/08/16

Yahoo has used personae for close to ten years now to help them serve their customers better and maximize revenues to achieve success in the brutally competitive search market.

However, Yahoo uses personae strictly to group user interaction behaviours of their customers as indicated here:

Yahoo recently sent a Yodel Ancedotal message to customers focused on (Neuro)Persona behaviour surveys:

we look at the story of Jewellery repair and FedEx.

What’s your social mojo?Posted: 13 Aug 2009 10:08 PM PDT As Twitter becomes more mainstream, everyone and their mother (and grandmother… and mayor… and daytime TV host) is trying their hand at the tweet. But what they might not realize is that how you use Twitter can say a lot about you. In honor of our new Yahoo! Homepage, which was designed to be customized to reflect your true personality, we’ve launched a new tool that helps you analyze your social mojo. Just enter your Twitter username and our highly scientific pipe thingy goes to work to determine exactly what kind of Twitter persona you possess. You might be a:

  • § Headliner – You’re the star of the Twitterverse, have tons of followers, and have retweets the likes of Ashton Kutcher and Perez Hilton
  • § Crowd Pleaser – You use lots of hashtags and are in on all the hot conversations
  • § Cheerleader – Retweeting is how you roll
  • § B.F.F. – Your volume of @replies makes you everybody’s best bud
  • § Party Animal – With so many followers, you’re the life of the party
  • § Private Eye – Like any good investigator, you’re following a boatload of people
  • § Concierge – You live for links and sending people to the best stuff
  • § Word Whiz – You’re a natural wordsmith and make the most of your 140 characters
  • § Lone Wolf – You’re more of a low-profile type (some might even accuse you of lurking)
  • § Name Dropper – You use lots of @names when you tweet
  • § Matchmaker – You pass along lots of URLs to make sure everyone’s connected
  • § Wall Flower – You don’t tweet much but you’re still in on the party
  • § Novelist – You have a lot to say and tweet with a lot of characters to prove it
  • § Shadow – You follow lots of people like a good shadow would
  • § Scenester – If there’s a hashtag conversation happening, you’re there
  • § Tweethead – Your high number of retweets shows you like to spread the good stuff

 
And once you get your assessment, we suggest a number of related websites that you can add to your very own Yahoo! Homepage to help feed your mojo.

Give it a try — http://yahoo.knowyourmojo.com… and then tweet about it. (And be sure to follow us on Twitter — we’re a Concierge.)

Nicki Dugan
Blog Editor

Now why is this important to Yahoo?  Simple, if Yahoo can accomodate behaviours the actual people exhibiting the behaviours are irrelevent in that it doesn’t matter if they are young, old, rich, poor, strong or weak.

Elementally (Neuro)Personae render marketing segmentation analysis redundant.  I would have said useless, but in my view it has been that way for decision making for a considerable period of time.

Cheers,

Nick www.adscenario.com www.neuropersona.com www.speedsynch.com

Media Personati

2009/05/18

Media is a container of stories and may be understood by using a Neuropersona concept where masks are worn by Personati or people to take a particular perspective represented by stories and processes attached to each mask.

How do we know which Media helps us get our messages to the right people?

Think about Media just like you would a story.  Some stories resonate with some people, others do not, and to help us understand how to align our stories we must consider the Neuropersona masks that are helpful to people.  When we take this perspective we quickly see that not all Media yields the same results and if our objectives change we are alerted to the different Media options and changes that suit our new requirements.  Life constantly changes and our use of Media should align with the changes important to our values.

Alignment is a critical component to Media and the Personati behind the Neuropersona masks.

Cheers,

Nick www.neuropersona.com

Predictive Analytics Guru

2009/04/04
A Neuropersona Story Lens finds the Answer before you ask a Question

A Neuropersona Story Lens finds the Answer before you ask a Question

A simple Story Lens and a Neuropersona perspective helps you understand where you are and prepare for future opportunities quickly and simply.
Cheers,
Nick

Persona Behaviour & Marketing Value

2008/11/09

Research indicates that Persona behaviour can span multiple interaction channels and shows that an individual can pick up and remove Persona masks at will according to their objectives and their measures of success.

Understanding how someone picks up and discards a Persona can help us serve our customers sublimely.

A laser like focus on service allows Persona practitioners to step up and offer unique value to our clients and their customers.

Imagine that a Persona can span multiple channels when interacting with an organization, from bricks to clicks to call centres.  Another dimension is the possibility that the person behind the Persona may buy or interact on behalf of someone else and take on their Persona.  Indeed they may go to the same site or company again and exhibit another Persona behaviour.
 
As Persona practitioners or stewards of web sites, call centres or physical stores we should accomodate Personae behaviours first, then static Personae labels and finally market segment labels.  All three perspectives complement eachother though it is my experience the notion of probabilistic behaviour or Persona behaviour offers the most flexibility and that the only real way to predict what someone will do is to ask them to declare what behaviour that is important to them.
The bottom line is that understanding Personae behaviours is critical but you must allow the people your serve to tell you what is important and provide navigation or value options to so that they can behave according to what they value at the time they intereact with you, your web sites, call centres or stores.
Cheers,
Nick
nick@scenario2.com

Persona Behaviour Predicts Future

2008/11/05

Forecasts and the future may be important to accountants and marketers but are best determined by the storyteller who bridges the present and the future by using a tool called a Persona or the representation of how someone might act in the future according to objectives important to them at that time.

How can a storyteller understand the future?  By using stories, pure and simple.

People depend on stories to understand their environment and processes important to them.  In our current techno-oriented world processes are or rather need to be accelerated by software.  Likewise stories create brand value which is then measured by numbers.  I call this sentence my ‘Story Lens’–tell a story twice and it becomes a process, tell it again and someone writes software, tell it again and it becomes a brand value and tell it yet again and someone creates a measure or KPI.

The Story Lens is a tool that provides perspective to a person.  Now it gets interesting.

Consider that perspective can be change at will and that perspective depends on what is being measured.  Typically measures involve two elements, a data set and a formula–this is also called a KPI.

A KPI is pointed to a process which is also a behaviour exhibited by a Persona.

NOW…to understand the future we set TARGETS, usually numbers, that we use to compare our performance and help us adjust to our customer, competitive or market circumstances.

WHAT is the commonality between today and tomorrow?  Stories, Numbers and Personae or people.

Understanding Persona behaviour allows us to understand what will happen in the future.  The relationships between Numbers, Stories and the future is explored at www.scenario2.com or www.marketstory.com